The race tier list tells you what each race does. This page answers the question underneath it: how many rerolls does it actually take to get there, and when should you stop? The reroll calculator does this math live for your exact reroll count — this post walks through why the numbers look the way they do.
Quick answer
At a 1% roll chance, Thestrals takes an expected 100 rerolls to hit — not a typo. Most players are better served by stopping at a 10% B-tier race like Undead or Werewolf and putting their rerolls toward a realistic S/A target like Stellar Ambassador (4%) instead of chasing the single rarest race blind.
Step-by-step: the math
- Expected rerolls to hit a race = 1 ÷ chance. This is the mean of a geometric distribution — the standard way to model “how many tries until the first success” when every attempt has the same independent probability. A 1% race averages 100 attempts; a 10% race averages 10.
- Redeem RELEASE and WIZARD first. Both codes give 5 Race Rerolls each — 10 free rerolls before you spend anything else. Check the codes page for current status; both are source-backed launch codes at the time of writing.
- Run those 10 rerolls against the probability table below, not against hope. A 10% race has a 65% chance of showing up somewhere in 10 tries. A 1% race has less than a 10% chance in the same 10 tries.
- Decide your stop line before you start. If you’re chasing Thestrals, decide in advance whether you’re willing to push past 50 rerolls, since the math says you’ll need roughly double that on average.
- Bank extra rerolls for a real target, not incremental gains. Rerolling from Werewolf (10%) to Death Eater (also 10%) wastes rerolls for a lateral move — only reroll upward in expected value.
Comparison: chance within your first 10 rerolls
Using the codes’ combined 10 free rerolls as the baseline, here’s the real probability of landing each race, calculated from 1 − (1 − chance)^10:
| Race | Tier | Roll chance | Expected rerolls | Chance within 10 rerolls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thestrals | S | 1% | 100 | 9.6% |
| Stellar Ambassador | A | 4% | 25 | 33.5% |
| Fiendish Demon | A | 5% | 20 | 40.1% |
| Ice Crystal | A | 5% | 20 | 40.1% |
| Undead | B | 10% | 10 | 65.1% |
| Death Eater | B | 10% | 10 | 65.1% |
| Werewolf | B | 10% | 10 | 65.1% |
| Elf | C | 15% | 6.7 | 80.3% |
| Tree Spirit | C | 15% | 6.7 | 80.3% |
| Human | C | 25% | 4 | 94.4% |
Read this table as a stop-line planner, not just trivia. If you only have your launch-code rerolls to spend, a B-tier race is the realistic outcome — roughly two-thirds of players land one within 10 rolls. Chasing Thestrals with only 10 rerolls means accepting roughly 90% odds of walking away disappointed.
Why this matters more than the tier order itself
The tier list ranks races by combat value, but combat value only matters if you can actually reach the race without burning every reroll you’ll ever earn. Undead’s B tier looks unglamorous next to Thestrals’ S tier, but its 10% roll chance and fatal-hit-survival effect make it the practical pick for early boss learning — see the Dwarf King mechanics guide for why that safety net matters against a boss with a hard-to-dodge slam. Treat S-tier as a long-term goal you fund with spare rerolls after your build is already functional, not a blocker before you start playing.
Update note: a possible new race isn’t in this math yet
The 10-race table above matches this site’s verified race data as of 2026-05-20. Guide sites covering the “Spider Lair” content wave report a new race called Summoner tied to summoning-spell builds — but they disagree on its rarity: one page lists it as Epic, a separate guide from the same publisher calls it the only Legendary race in the game. Until that’s resolved and this site verifies a roll chance, we’re not adding it to the probability table, because a wrong chance would break every expected-rerolls number above it. See the Spider Lair update tracker for the full conflict.
FAQ
Is the reroll chance the same every single roll? Yes — each reroll is treated as an independent event at the listed percentage, which is why the geometric distribution math applies cleanly. There’s no pity system or bad-luck protection documented in the current source data.
How many rerolls do I get from codes alone? 10, from RELEASE and WIZARD (5 each). Additional codes like 17kCCU also grant rerolls but carry a lower confidence label in our source data — check the codes page for current status before counting on them.
Should I reroll away from a B-tier race I already have? Only if you have rerolls to spare after your build is functional. Undead, Death Eater, and Werewolf are all viable midgame races — the expected-value case for rerolling only gets strong once you’re chasing an A or S tier, not a lateral B-to-B swap.
What’s the realistic number of rerolls for a Stellar Ambassador chase? Expected value is 25 rerolls, but that’s an average, not a guarantee — some players hit it in 5, others need 60+. Budget accordingly and use the calculator to check your live odds as you go.