The reroll calculator uses a fixed-probability model. The BloxInformer race table supplies the listed percentages. This is not proof that every current reroll is independent, that no pity system exists, or that an older race name still matches the current client. In particular, that table calls the 1% Legendary Night Knight, while older guides used Thestrals. The site shows the naming difference rather than claiming an observed rename.
At least one success is different from an average waiting time
For independent attempts with fixed success probability p, the chance of at least one success in n attempts is 1 − (1 − p)^n. Zero future attempts have zero chance of a new success. The expected waiting time 1/p is an average over many hypothetical runs; it does not mean a target must arrive by that attempt.
| Hypothetical target rate | Average attempts | Chance within 10 | Attempts for at least 90% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | 100 | 9.56% | 230 |
| 4% | 25 | 33.52% | 57 |
| 5% | 20 | 40.13% | 45 |
| 10% | 10 | 65.13% | 22 |
Even 230 attempts at 1% leave a failure possibility. These are calculations, not observed player results or a recommendation to buy rolls.
One 10% race is not the same event as any of three
The 65.13% figure describes one specified 10% target within ten attempts. If three distinct outcomes each have 10% probability and you accept any of them, the per-attempt accepted probability is 30%, and the model gives 1 − 0.7^10, about 97.18%. Neither statement proves that a particular race is a better build; it only defines which outcomes count as success.
Before using the number, write your target precisely. “Any listed defensive option” and “this exact race” need different accepted sets. Do not quote a single-race probability as the chance for an entire rarity group.
Set a budget you already have
Read your actual available rerolls. Do not assume an old code gives ten free rolls: the code tracker records expiry disagreements, and this site has not performed a current redemption pass. In the calculator, blank, negative, fractional and out-of-range counts are rejected rather than silently changed to one roll.
If your current race already matches your target, no further roll is needed to own it. The tool still labels its percentage as future draws so that it is not mistaken for your current ownership probability. Decide what you can afford to lose before using a reroll action in the game; a probability table cannot make that personal decision.